Debating Defence and Naval Policy
For much of February 2007, a small group of academics that included serving and former naval officers engaged in an electronic debate on the future of Canada's defence and naval policies. What follows is an attempt to gather up the key points of that debate in the hope that they will be informative and also cause people to think about these important issues.
The catalyst was a 31 January article in the Ottawa Citizen by David Pugliese on the key components of a new "Canada First" defence policy on the basis of a leaked DND proposal. Among the more radical ideas being touted were some that would have significant long-term naval implications. Six Aurora maritime patrol aircraft, one destroyer and the Navy's two aging refuelling and resupply ships (AORs) would be paid off. The loss of the AORs would mean that the navy would face a two-year period, at least, in which it will not have its own means to refuel vessels at sea until the new Joint Support Ships joined the fleet in 2012 or later. On the positive side, Pugliese explained, replacements for remaining 14 frigates and destroyers were expected to come into service beginning in 2018. "In the meantime, the Halifax-class frigates will be modernized and command and control equipment now on the Iroquois-class destroyers will be transferred to the frigates."
Naturally, this riled the naval community, especially those in various Canadian universities, and some were quick to respond. Eric Lerhe of Dalhousie University was interviewed by the Halifax Chronicle Herald on 2 February and was quoted saying that the loss of the AORs undermined "the Canadian task group concept for our ships and any chance of being able to independently deploy anywhere in the world" "We are dramatically reducing the capability of our navy. We have just given up our ability to extract Canadians from any hostile situation for a two- to three-year period."
Meanwhile, others began to draft editorials and letters expressing concern over the naval plan as well as over the long-term funding concepts. To help, Lerhe provided a good analysis for the others to draw on. In this, he had two main concerns: the proposed budget, which did not make sense, and the longer-term impact of the proposals on the general naval capability
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There are many problems with some of the financial analysis that seems to underlie the
leaked Conservative defence strategy. While hardly the only problem, the first thing to
grab my attention was the reported need for the "savings" gained from getting rid one of
our three air defence destroyers and both of our two supply ships two years before the
latter are replaced. Essentially, mothballing these will produce no savings in operating
costs other than the $5 million in fuel these ships would normally burn a year. The
maintenance savings will be negligible as the Navy is unlikely to refit them in their
last two years of life. The personnel savings are nonexistent as the sailors from them
will be required for the replacement ships the Conservatives still promise. |
Ian Parker of Ottawa sent a strongly worded letter to the editor of the Ottawa Citizen on 2 February but it was not published. In hindsight, this was not surprising as the issue quickly went cold and may have fallen into the shadow of the story of the enquiry into deaths of Afghanis by Canadian soldiers. Parker's letter brought out many of the long-standing concerns and included sentiments expressed quietly by many former naval persons, especially the view that "The Liberals, for decades, emasculated Canada's military and security forces. Further reductions, even in the name of re-building, will exacerbate an already critical situation." He continued
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Cutting the Navy by over twenty percent and our military maritime surveillance capability by about a third, for marginal savings, will cripple Canada's ability to ensure its maritime security. Historically, promises by any Canadian Government have never been fulfilled unless forced by political embarrassment. Buying transport aircraft and helicopters for employment in far off lands at the expense of military and naval resources critical to the security and the sovereignty of Canada seem to be driven by a desire, by some in the military leadership, for military adventures such as Afghanistan rather than a plan based on our National Interests. If this plan is approved Canada will essentially have renounced its maritime sovereignty to other nations, something that will never be regained, something that will have a profound impact on all Canadians. |
Although the issue seemed quiet, on 2 February, the Ottawa Citizen published another article by David Pugliese, which laid out some of the facts and differing opinions on the government's Arctic policy, specifically the security aspects of that policy. One contentious issue was the apparent government flip-flop on its earlier statement on the plan to acquire three armed icebreakers. Although O'Connor re-assured the House that, "DND officials are exploring options to improve the Canadian Forces surveillance and response capabilities in the North" and that there will be an "enhanced" military presence in the region, this did not satisfy everyone. Pugliese explained
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Larry Bagnell, the Liberal MP for the Yukon, said Mr. Harper made very specific promises during the
election campaign, including the stationing of three heavy naval icebreakers in the North. The
Conservatives' election platform promised a Conservative government would also build a civilian-military
deep-water docking facility in the region as well as provide an army emergency response capability for
the Arctic through a new airborne battalion. It would also install an underwater surveillance system
in the region.
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According to Pugliese, O'Connor said that the defence strategy is not yet finished and it is inaccurate to claim the Conservatives are changing their views on the Arctic. "Defending Artic [sic] Sovereignty is part of Canada's New Government's Canada First Defence Strategy". Pugliese explained that "In his appearance before the Senate defence committee last year, Mr. O'Connor said various options, from hovercraft to icebreakers, are being examined for northern operations." Bagnall, Pugliese explained, was not the government's only critic
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International law professor Michael Byers, who specializes in Arctic sovereignty issues, points out that during the election the Conservatives didn't talk about patrol ships. "Mr. Harper specifically mentioned armed naval heavy icebreakers," said Mr. Byers, a University of British Columbia professor. "Arctic patrol ships are not icebreakers. They're not even close to icebreakers." |
The two-issue debate had now gained a third dimension that would soon become even more contentious.
A couple of days later, on 4 February, the Winnipeg Free Press published an editorial by Peter Haydon
of Dalhousie University, that echoed some of Lerhe's unpublished concerns and took a more precise maritime
security approach in addition to raising concerns over the apparent savings from the cuts
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Giving up the fleet support ships before their replacements arrive probably spells the demise of the naval task group concept that has served this country so well for the last 15 years. On their own, the frigates don't have great endurance, perhaps some 11,000 kilometres, and this limits their operating range as well as making them dependent on refuelling stops in port or from one of the support vessels if they are to be at sea for more than about 10 days. For the navy to retain its traditional flexibility and mobility, it will have to buy or lease a commercial tanker and fit it out for the fleet support role. This is not difficult. The Australians have just done that with HMAS Sirius, and the British have considerable experience as a result of the Falklands War.
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Haydon went on to criticise the plan to scrap the Auroras, "Getting rid of six Aurora maritime patrol aircraft makes absolutely no sense." There was still a need, he said, "to gather information on what is going on in all waters under our jurisdiction and an aircraft is an excellent way of doing it." He also expressed concern that unmanned aircraft (UAVs) probably did not have the capability or the flexibility to replace an Aurora.
Canada was not alone in facing a naval decline, the Royal Navy was in far worse trouble according to a 14 January 2007 editorial in the New York Post by Arthur Herman, author of To Rule the Waves: How the British Navy Shaped the Modern World, that made the rounds in Canada on 5 February
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A 400-YEAR epoch of world history is about to draw to a close. If Britain's current Labor government has its way, Britain's Royal Navy will mothball at least 13, and perhaps as many as 19, of its remaining 44 ships, or nearly half its effective fleet.
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The common denominator in the Canadian and British situations is money. In this, as seen several times before, when the demand for defence spending increases in one sector - in Iraq for the British and in Afghanistan for Canadians - the usual government solution is to "rob Peter to pay Paul". In both cases, it is the Army that is demanding more money and because the respective navies are not currently actively engaged in international security operations, politically they seem to be the logical place to effect savings. The problem, as the lessons of history so often tell us, is that such short-term measures invariably have longer-term implications.
Then on 5 February, Senator Colin Kenny kept-up the momentum with an article in Ottawa Citizen in which he expressed great concern over the proposed funding concept for military modernization. The new plans, Kenny believed, contained three bad options none of which would solve the Canadian Forces' immediate problems or their longer-term ones. In particular, he saw the more expensive option of raising funding from the current level of $14.3 million a year to something between $35 billion and $36.5 billion a year by 2025 as a "sleight-of-hand" because given normal expansion of the economy over the next two decades, the $36.5-billion option would result in Canadians spending between 0.9 per cent and 1.3 per cent of Canada's GDP on defence. The spending today is 1.1 percent of GDP. As Kenny pointed out, in 1991 Canada was spending 1.6 percent of GDP on defence. As he summed-up,
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Delaying that level of spending until 2025 would mean another two decades of stretching our troops on a rack to perform the difficult tasks that politicians keep assigning them. It simply isn't fair to them to use smoke and mirrors to make Canada look like an effective performer on the world stage when the money isn't there to allow the military to do its job. If we're going to defend ourselves, and help build a better world, it's going to cost money. |
Support for Senator Kenny's fiscal analysis grew, as did concern over the implications of being without the AORs. As Dr. Richard Gimblett of Ottawa pointed out
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The plan would scrap both remaining AORs (the 3rd was binned in the mid-90s to make way for an anticipated replacement - still not realized!), and they are just as necessary for our homeland defence. It will be recalled that we got the first of our own AORs after the Cuban Missile Crisis, when it was brought home to us that we had little capacity to sustain independent barrier operations off our own coast, without relatively short-legged destroyers and frigates having to go off-station, leaving gaps in the line for 2-3 days at a time, while going back into port to refuel. Halifax, St John's, Esquimalt and Prince Rupert are the only four ports on both coasts - a glance at a chart will reveal they are a long way from nowhere (adding Inuvik and Iqaluit to the mix will not make the problem easier). |
Two days later, 7 February, Parker opined
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Essentially the Navy is in big trouble, but, as you rightly point out, the CF as a whole is in big trouble. The leadership have squandered a year when a government was/is predisposed to rebuild the CF and, given the PM's speech yesterday at the Canadian Club where he stated "Canada needs a stronger military and a stronger role in the world to protect our people at home and our interests abroad" they may still be predisposed to rebuild given the right plan. As for the Navy, they have yet to build a strategic plan. My insights tell me they have not been able to operationalize Leadmark. |
Again, a historical reminder made it clear that the situation was hardly new. Gimblett explained that the record of Canadian naval force development provided an alarming trend
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Every 20 years or so we go through a boom and bust cycle: the changing security environment demands we build up a very workable little fleet (lately of world class), we get a couple of very good op cycles and accolades from our allies out of it, but then we begin to starve it by having not bought enough spares to keep it fit, then penny-pinch till finally it fritters away into the rust-bucket butt of media jokes. The inspired design of the Halifax-class and the "Trumped" 280s really transform us into a world class "medium power" navy. That was the fleet that made Canada a world leader for the Second Gulf War, Op Apollo, when we commanded the Coalition naval effort in the Arabian Sea for the better part of two years after the 9/11 attacks - not that the government of the day appreciated the wonderful foreign policy tool it had at its disposal. |
On 8 February, Lerhe circulated some general ideas for an editorial he wanted to write and asked for suggestions
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Byers idea of the Navy having an armed icebreaker is nonsense. We must act soon; Canadians will expect firm govt action (especially ship orders) over the next year as these vessels need 5-8 years to deliver. Other nations will be assessing our seriousness regarding the Arctic by how quickly and fully we react.
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Comments came quickly; Gimblett pointed out
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It is important to distinguish between grey hulls and red hulls. In essence, under our system of governance, red hulls have the constabulary function, grey hulls the defence; if USN were to come upon a Canadian grey hull "patrolling" the NW Passage, they would probably infer it was an international waterway. |
Dr. Rob Huebert of the University of Calgary then pointed out "Under international law there are no divisions of type of governmental vessels. If the USN inferred anything about gray they would do the same for red. That does not make a difference." And added a postscript
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If the Coast Guard is not soon re-capitalized we will soon be moving backwards in the ability act in the north. The Louie St. Laurent (heavy ice breaker) was built in 1969, the next four largest icebreakers were built between 1977 to 1982. We must get beyond only thinking in terms of naval capability or coast guard and think Canadian! And anyone not yet convinced about the absolute need to prepare for change, please see the latest IPCC reports. |
Gimblett replied
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Canadian warships have no law enforcement jurisdiction within Canadian waters, which is why we pack Mounties on drug busts and fisheries officers on fishery patrols. Grey hulls in the NW Passage will not accomplish what this govt says it wants to do, re-capitalizing the Coast Guard certainly will. Therefore, we need new red hulls to do the safety of navigation and fisheries enforcement, ice-capable grey hulls to patrol the approaches, and either can pack Mounties as required |
To which Huebert responded "I agree with all you say here, but none of it affects the ability of both CG and HMC Ships under international law to equally enforce Canadian sovereignty. What we do within that sovereignty is up to us, but it does not make or break the ability to make and sustain the claim. All that matters is to have a government vessel there."
While that side debate was going on, Lerhe sent off a letter to the editor of the Ottawa Citizen following up on Pugiliese's article on Arctic security
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David Pugiliese's recent article is accurate in its assessment that the Canada First Defence Strategy is sending mixed signals about the Arctic. Yet that document did get some things right by killing the idea of "heavy naval icebreakers." This proposal was awfully close to trying to improve highway security by having the police drive the snowplows. It looks very impressive but achieves nothing. Its also expensive, puts the wrong people in the wrong job and shifts attention from the fact that what one really needs are more snowplows and more police cars.
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The same day, Parker fired off a letter to the editor of the Globe and Mail which also went unpublished, making the point that
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We are a self-declared Arctic nation that cannot exercise our sovereignty, and, despite the protestations of the MND, seem to have no tangible means now or in the future to exercise our sovereignty in the Arctic, although the proposed Arctic Patrol Vessel will be a positive move if it is delivered. Unfortunately, a similar situation also exists in the Atlantic and the Pacific. Cutting the Navy by over twenty percent and our military maritime surveillance capability by 100 percent, for marginal savings, will cripple Canada's ability to ensure its maritime security. If this plan is approved it will have a profound impact on all Canadians as over forty percent of our trade moves by the oceans. Abandoning the security of the economic life of the country and stripping away our ability to prevent attacks or infiltration from the sea will put into question our national sovereignty. |
Then, Huebert re-entered the debate, circulating a draft editorial for the national media, the key points of which were
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If the leaked reports are true, the Harper Government is about to announce that it has changed its mind about three new ice-breakers, deep-water port and replacements of the Twin Otters. Instead, the navy will be getting new patrol vessels that can visit the Arctic in the summer -as long as the ice conditions are good! One has to ask what it is about the Arctic that causes successive Canadian Governments to make substantial promises that are never fulfilled. If this ingrained habit was not so detrimental to the Canadian control of its Arctic it would be comical. Instead it is both sad and dangerous.
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Commenting on Huebert's draft editorial, Gimblett said,
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I think the important linking idea is that sovereignty-building in the Arctic is a whole-of-govt activity; the CF (in this case Navy) does nation-building as a result of what we do defending the nation; however, it is not the responsibility of the CF (Navy) to bear the considerable burden of nation-building from its existing meagre budget. If we (the people) give the CF (Navy) new tasks, we must give them the money to do it. Icebreakers are a new task that must be funded - that is why the CFDS is walking back - this govt failed to fund the bold promises it made during the election. |
On 11 February, Lerhe stated to everyone that he thought it important to get the funding for both the Coast Guard and the Navy for Arctic vessels. "The Navy must be in the Arctic." he said, "I think submarines with AIP are needed but likely too far off. So an Arctic Patrol Vessel (APV) is needed." and then elaborated to explain that he did not believe that the new patrol vessel need be a heavy icebreaker but must have an ice transit capability equal to any other nation's commercial vessel, research vessel, or patrol vessel. He concluded, "My intent here is to use the current debate to ensure the Navy gets the right ship. We cannot accept that the Navy is absent from the third ocean and action to correct this must start in the next year."
On 11 February, Ken Hansen, the Defence Fellow at Dalhousie, joined the debate
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One thing I think is being overlooked here is that ice-capable patrol ships can have valid tasks in joint warfare and in service-specific naval tasks. The best example is the USCG Lake- and Tampa-class cutters of Second World War. These ships were 'ice-capable' for their day, and because the USN's General Board had given it some thought, made sure they had some 'latent capability' for warfare. Most importantly, because they were intended for ice operations, they had an excellent fuel capacity that gave them very long endurance. But, they also were sturdily built, with extra accommodations, and had sites identified in their plan for the addition of 'bolt-on' weaponry. All these ships went on to have useful wartime careers doing things that they were not intended for, but for which they provided good utility. I wrote in my article on "Expeditionary Warfare" in CNR (citing Milan Vego) that, "far from emphasizing the extreme case of amphibious assault against defended beachheads, traditional naval support roles in expeditionary warfare most commonly involve cover, administrative support, and supply operations." An ice-capable patrol ship can easily be pressed into any number of support roles in expeditionary warfare, constabulary cooperative operations abroad, and humanitarian relief missions. Seeing ice-capable patrol 'cutters' (or sloops) as warships of little combat value is a mistake that has been made all to frequently senior leaders that don't understand either history or theory. |
A new dimension was literally thrown into the debate on 14 February when someone passed around the report of the US Navy's woes from the San Diego Union-Tribune of 1 February, 2007,
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Bedeviled with cost overruns, the Navy's shipbuilding program is in danger of sinking under its own weight. Navy leaders have struggled to upgrade an aging fleet of warships with next-generation aircraft carriers, destroyers, amphibious assault ships and submarines that cost billions more than the vessels they replace. Navy leaders and military analysts have warned that if Congress doesn't boost the Pentagon's shipbuilding budget - $11.6 billion this fiscal year - the Navy won't be able to meet its growing list of commitments...
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After reading the Union-Tribune story, Lerhe noted the same day, "With the SCSC program peaking at an eye-popping $24 billion, Canada has very much the same problem. As Joel Sokolsky notes, its time to look at the USCG large cutter design, which admittedly has initial problems. I find this apt as they seem to have copied our CPF and updated it."
Hansen followed-up,
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The obvious answer to this problem is the high/low fleet mix that I proposed at the CFPS conference two years ago. Gold-plating by the navy (and coast guard) results in these astronomical costs. Norman Friedman said it best at last year's Maritime Security conference. There is absolutely no point in committing to big buys of the latest technology (SCSC) when we are in a era of radical technological change that will drive the theoretical constructs about how we fight (which is real transformation, not the organizational sham that passes for it nowadays). We need only very few advanced warships to 'keep up with the Joneses' and large numbers of low-end cutters (and I mean LOW end and small!) to attend to the myriad of domestic constabulary duties and low end naval tasks that are relevant in this age of littoral joint warfare. My article on "Expeditionary Warfare" in Canadian Naval Review stated that the CPF is too small to be an effective superior ship and is too big to do either the domestic constabulary job or the joint littoral job; they are neither fish nor fowl - designed for long range ASW operation in the Cold War, they are not what we should be basing the future of our navy upon. We should also be putting more resources into operational logistics support that will serve as a huge force-multiplier when we need to be effective through persistent presence. Without a peer-competitor in the offing for at least 20 years and the world's only super-power as our closest ally, anything else is an unaffordable impossibility |
Haydon's views were different,
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Small may make sense in some respects, but if one is serious about national maritime security then endurance trumps size. There is a myth that the WWII corvettes were tactically useful all the time; in reality, in any heavy sea they were utterly useless because survival became the driving force. It was the same when we took a diesel-electric submarine under the ice; we were about ten percent effective operationally, the rest of the effort was spent making sure we didn't kill ourselves.
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Following up on the 14th, Gimblett said,
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I too am a subscriber to the "tyranny of distance" thesis, as well as that "size matters" in providing seakeeping platform stability for systems effectiveness as well as creature comforts. However, there is also much to be said for Ken's thesis, if I may paraphrase, that "good enough is good enough." Our navy is entering a period of considerable risk, in which no govt will put forth the eye-watering sums needed for fleet replacement (that is assuming it can muster at the "jarmy" capability review board). It may be time to scope back considerably on the full-class capabilities of the future surface combatant. Is there any logic to arguing that the first four (as planned) be replacements for the 280s (not only for C2, but so that we don't get out of the big missile game), and accept that the follow-on dozen will be only very-basic capability (defined, I propose, as sufficient to conduct MIO and naval fires, the latter to support an amphib capability)? I would subscribe more fully to Ken's thesis (ie, delete the 280 replacement), except that I just know in my gut that whatever is built will be ours for the next 40 years, and a lot of strategic surprises can happen in that period of time. |
Lerhe then added, "I like this distance thing." However, Hansen's reply to Haydon that day was somewhat longer
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The corvette analogy is correct, but only insofar as the corvettes goes. The long-range escort of that day was the sloop, with the aforementioned USCG cutter having even better endurance due to their innovative turbo-electric propulsion systems. Both sloops and cutters had cruiser-like endurance on far less displacement and were, in fact, designed to be part of two-armed team for distant operations of all sorts, both expeditionary and sovereignty.
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Haydon replied to Hansen, saying
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With all due respect I think you are overlooking a couple of key points. A "simple" ship is just that -- a simple ship, able only to do simple tasks. The operational requirements (perhaps imperatives) of the North, based on the high probability that those waters will slowly open-up for more shipping and other commercial marine activity over the next 40 years -- i.e., the projected lifespan of some new form of warship/patrol vessel, which I believe the Navy must man for a host of reasons, are:
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And on 15 February Hansen responded
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All three of [Peter's] criteria fit quite nicely into my definition of a simple ship and were fulfilled nicely by a USCGC cutter of 50 years ago. Endurance, utility, and environmental survivability are all easy and cheap to attain through sensible design. All of your characteristics were part of my presentation two years ago. The simple ship does need situational awareness and should be able to contribute towards it. This is where the admirals of the past were right to ensure that the old 205-class 'steamers' had a data link system, but forced them to 'soldier on' with their original sensors. That does not mean that they have to have advanced, long-range sensors for multi-dimensional combat. The simple ships' emphasis should be on short- range/shallow water EM and EO systems. Eric asked me for an example of a 'simple ship' and I gave him the same one I used for my presentation: the Vosper-Thornycroft River-class OPVs, which are going through a refit to make them more utilitarian (working deck enlargement, extra boat booms and cranes for larger craft and unmanned UUVs, USVs, extra accommodations, and expanded flight deck facilities for refuelling helos (but not accommodating them) and for launching and recovering UAVs). Although it is not doubled-hulled, this is a cheap design feature that can be built in from the start. |
That was really the end of the debate, there were a couple more minor exchanges over details but everyone felt the main points had been made.
- The Canada First defence policy proposal was badly flawed in terms of money, as Senator Kenny termed it; a fiscal sleight of hand that would not permit necessary modernization.
- Paying off the AORs before they are replaced was a strategic disaster that would severely limit future fleet flexibility.
- The very high price of new construction would dictate a review of fleet mix.
- The Navy needs to take the lead on the new Arctic Patrol vessel and move that project ahead as fast as possible. The Arctic sovereignty and security patrol task had to be under navy control because it was too complex for any other department to handle.
After that, the debate went silent as the participants went about their separate activities and really waited to see what the media would produce next.
Posted by Mark Collins of the Torch:
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'Neil Reynolds, in his column "Bring back the mighty ship Labrador" (Feb. 14), writes that "Canada could very quickly deploy heavy Arctic icebreakers that function simultaneously as armed naval patrol vessels." But there is no national or military need for Navy icebreakers.
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NAVY CAPABILITIES SLIDE WHILE GOVERNMENT SITS IDLE!!!
This post at David Pugliese's Defence Watch has generated some interesting feedback in the comments section.
Canadian Shipbuilding - What are we waiting for?
History Challenges Uniformity in Fleet Structure and Capability.
Ken Hansen
In today's Defence Watch by David Pugliese an unnamed Canadian naval officer laments that the lack of progress on naval construction and refitting will result in the navy being short on "major warships," which he categorizes as destroyers and frigates, in the foreseeable future. The officer says that delaying this critical work will leave the navy impotent, leading him to recommend disbanding the navy and arming the coast guard. His (or her) view is typical of naval officers who see the fleet only in terms of combat units, and not as a total assemblage of capabilities. How long will it take before naval officers, such as this one, realize that the Cold War is over and that the geo-strategic construct that shaped our naval 'niche capability' is gone? Such a challenge has been issued before, but it seems it was not taken seriously. It is time to re-issue that message.
In the Spring/Summer 2000 issue of Maritime Affairs, Doctor/Lieutenant-Commander Richard Gimblett wrote a rather provocative (and somewhat tongue-in-cheek) article entitled "A Transformational Fleet of Canada in The 21st Century." In it, he thoroughly perturbed the naval leadership of that day by suggesting that the fleet structure of the Cold War, which remains practically unchanged to this day, was unsuited for the emerging security challenges of the future. He argued that the only way for the navy to ensure its continued existence was for it to be demonstrably supportive of the government's foreign policy (and, I argue further, domestic policy).
Gimblett suggested that the new definition of security was broader than the exclusively military version of the previous era, and hinted (somewhat darkly) that the concepts of human security and soft power were in ascendancy. Well before any other Canadian naval commentator, he postulated that humanitarian assistance is an important naval function more attuned to societal expectations and governmental requirements than combat capabilities. In a hypothetical fleet structure for the 21st Century, he proposed: ten support ships, eight frigates (upgraded to a more modern configuration); four submarines; and twelve coastal patrol craft. The numbers of the last two types, he said, could be reduced to match resource allocations. The whole fleet would be divided equally between the coasts, had no destroyers, and four fewer frigates. No wonder his critics panned the article!
Eight years later, Gimblett's suggestions do not look so crazy. Major disasters and human suffering have filled the national media since the turn of the century. The new U.S. Maritime Strategy formally recognizes humanitarian assistance as a principal task of their sea services. In 2007, the USN deployed both of their enormous hospital ships plus a large amphibious ship to different regions of the globe on medical missions designed to improve American relations and its reputation. While controversy swirls over the future of the Littoral Combat Ship and the prospects of achieving a 313-ship fleet structure seem low, the USN continues to order fleet supply and strategic sealift ships for Military Sealift Command on a steady basis.
The Americans, masters of achieving strategic effect through robust logistical means, understand that mobility and sustainment have always been as important as fleet combat capability. They also know that force multiplication of conventional sea power is achieved through intelligence and logistics. It serves no purpose to be limited to the point of culmination when support services cannot meet operational requirements. What we are faced with in this new security environment is expeditionary operational situations dominated by logistical factors and requirements. This is a radically altered strategic circumstance from that of the Cold War. To find a precedent, some knowledge of naval history is necessary.
Naval forces prior to the turn of the 20th Century struggled to adjust to new technologies, just as we see them doing today. However, unlike today, fleets typically had small classes of ships in a wide variety of ship types as they experimented with configurations and employment options. Ships quickly became outmoded, but carried on in secondary duties after relegation from the battle fleet occurred. Our contemporary desire to see uniform levels of capability in all platforms would have been an anathema to fleet commanders of that era: it is clearly a hold-over from our Cold War way of thinking, when such measures were reasonable, even essential. This thinking needs to stop.
Ours is an age of impressive new capabilities (yesterday's shooting down of a crippled surveillance satellite by USS Lake Erie is a perfect example), the implications of which are not fully understood. Concentrating our experimentation and upgrading efforts into a few warships while building logistical capacity is not only consistent historically, it is a political and fiscal necessity. Uniformity in only one naval functional area can no longer be the measure of total naval capability. The navy's motto professes readiness, and does not caveat that declaration with limits on its employment. It is time to change; its time to diversify.
Whither the Navy?
On February 22, 2008, the Ottawa Citizen published an anonymous letter, entitled "Navy Capabilities Slide While Government Sits Idle", attributed to a serving Canadian Naval Officer in David Pugliese's Defence Watch column. Mr Pugliese thought it would be controversial and judging from the number of comments posted to the web site it has prompted some comment.
The letter is disturbing from several perspectives. First, it is clear that once again a government has proven itself unable to articulate a rational statement of defence policy that is understood by professional leaders in the Canadian Forces and the broader Canadian public. Only a few weeks ago, the Manley Panel made a similar point concerning the Afghanistan mission. While that panel has probably provided the best articulation of why this country is involved in that country, I don't see or hear government leaders criss-crossing the country with the message. General Hillier re-iterated the need for the government to provide the men and women of the Canadian Forces clearly worded reasons for their continued efforts and sacrifices at a speech to the Canadian Defence Associations on Friday, February 22, 2008.
Second, the well worn phrase "Canada First" continues to be spoken every time an investment is made in the Canadian Forces. It is not clear to me what this phrase means. Are we putting our nation's sovereignty first? Are we making the protection of national sovereignty our first defence priority? Or, are we putting Canada's other national interests (usually not well defined or understood by Canadians) first? Does this mean that expeditionary warfare, as part of a long standing alliance or some ad hoc coalition, is our real first defence priority? The government has an obligation and duty to make it clear to all Canadians what our defence policy and priorities are and how they relate to our foreign policy and clearly stated national interests.
Third, in this fog, what is the real intent of this government with respect to the role of the Canadian Navy, and for that matter the Canadian Army and Air Force? With huge new investments in strategic and tactical fixed-wing airlift, expeditionary land warfare seems to have a higher priority than a naval task group operating in maritime interdiction missions in the Indian Ocean to search for terrorists or contraband arms or to deter piracy. Domestic programs such as coastal patrol and search and rescue seem to be of lesser importance. Despite the announced modernisation of the Halifax Class frigates, the acquisition of the Cyclone helicopters, the continued overhaul and modernisation of some Aurora aircraft, the acquisition of Joint Support Ships and the Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels, there is still no clear policy direction for the maritime forces. The proposed modest amphibious capability has been deferred despite its obvious expeditionary role. One cannot blame naval officers for being confused about the future.
It seems to me, however, that there is a signal coming through all the fog. It is not carrying a message that many naval and maritime oriented Canadians may want to receive. The concept of a high capability independent naval task force is probably dead. In its place, the modernised frigates will continue to function singularly or in pairs with the United States Navy, and allied navies, to remain interoperable in the alliance setting. New capabilities will be gained to assist the maritime and other government forces in the surveillance and patrolling of our three ocean areas. The joint support ships will provide the logistics capability to support the frigates and patrol vessels at sea and a modest amphibious capability, when in company with one or more frigates, for civilian evacuations from foreign shores or humanitarian assistance. The army will lead the expeditionary missions and the navy and air force will support them logistically and with special capabilities.
And, in the can do spirit of the Canadian Forces, the navy will continue to be 'Ready Aye Ready'.
Col. (Ret'd) Brian K. Wentzell
Thinking the Un-Thinkable
Amphion
The Navy's plan to replace the existing fleet on a one-for-one basis plus a couple of extra ships over the next 30 or so years is ambitious and very expensive. A useful number hasn't been suggested yet, but I would think it has to be around $60 billion. To a politician, that is a truly frightening number, and represents a commitment with the potential to undermine the traditional processes of buying votes through local and popular spending.
Obviously, the whole Navy plan isn't going to be approved in one fell swoop; it will be handled as such programs have always been on a piece by piece basis within the political comfort zone. That means the program, the pieces of which are carefully integrated for sound technological, industrial and practical reasons, is politically vulnerable. Worse, individual ship replacement programs could be separated from the larger fleet development concept as politicians or generals without naval visions fiddle with the plan. Is this fear-mongering? No, it is not; it has happened before in Canada - ask anyone who remembers the fiscal crises of the 1970s.
What people should begin to think about now are the implications of the present naval program falling apart. However, a couple of things can be assumed fairly:
- the 12 Halifax-class frigates will be modernized and sail for another 20 years with new helicopters; and
- some Joint Support Ships (JSS) will be built - it may only be two, but it could be three depending on how serious the Army is about acquiring a rapid reaction force.
It would be nice to assume that three of the four submarines will be modernized and that their strategic and operational value will become clear as the frigates begin their lengthy modernizations overhauls, but that capability has become a media lightning rod and the program has many influential opponents. It is very vulnerable and needs constant public support to survive - much more than it is getting now.
Likewise, one cannot make assumptions about the completion of the Arctic Patrol Vessel (AOPV). This ship is still a long way into the future and that is a future that depends on considerable inter-departmental agreement over, to use Senator Colin Kenny's key question, "Who drives the bus?" Is it possible that we will see a ship operated by Coast Guard with the military providing operational command and the RCMP and the military providing the tactical force? In theory it is not a bad idea, but for it to happen several bureaucratic rice bowls will have to be broken, and that might just be asking too much. The program will also need complete DND support.
Would the Navy sacrifice some destroyers or frigates to advance the AOPV program in any form? Don't bet on it! Destroyers (and frigates of late) have always been the heart and soul of the Canadian Navy and there is no reason to expect this to change, and for good reason. Only a destroyer/frigate-type ship can provide the necessary operational flexibility and endurance to give the government the types of response capability they continually call for.
Digressing for a minute to pick-up a couple of points about the rationale for warships. Think about the post-Afghanistan world, and yes Virginia there will be a post-Afghanistan world and the Canadian Army better get used to that idea, and some things come into their true perspective. It will still be a troubled world and one that will demand military intervention and actions to impose and maintain stability. The following probable scenarios for military operations are self-explanatory:
- Post-environmental disaster humanitarian aid
- Evacuation operations in the wave of civil unrest or natural disaster
- Counter piracy and international crime patrols in areas like SE Asia and the Caribbean
- Stability operations in many places from the Caribbean to Africa to SE Asia and the Middle East
- Enforcing UN sanctions against Iran and/or North Korea or other non-conformist states
- Supporting UN/NATO/OAS military intervention operations
If Canada wants to remain a useful member of the world community it probably needs to be willing to play an active military role in global security, as it has for the last 60 or so years. To do that a balance of naval, air, and ground forces is necessary. The big question is, "What capabilities are needed?" and an important related question is, "Who must those forces be able to work with?" We may choose to do some things by ourselves, but we will choose to do most things collectively.
And that is where the political in-fighting begins because everyone has their own idea of the right force structure. The Canadian Navy has presented its view of future force requirements, but will have to run a tough gauntlet to get to that structure. Which brings me back to my basic concern; what happens if the politicians and the generals don't buy the naval vision?
Could the Navy remain effective with a force of 12 modernized frigates, 2-3 JSS, and a handful of coastal patrol vessels? This assumes that the Navy loses the fight to keep the submarines and to replace the Tribal-class destroyers, which will be a function of the intensity of the in-fighting in DND over longer-term funding and whether the Afghan operation has to be funded out of naval and air force capital and operations budgets. It is not that I am against the Afghan operation, it is just that common sense says that it has to end eventually and that it is not in the country's best interests to keep funding that operation at the expense of long-term national security.
That size of naval force would present organizational problems similar to those of the late 1940s and early 1950 when the Navy struggled to maintain operational commitments in Korea and to NATO in the Atlantic from a fleet that consisted of 11 destroyers, a carrier, and a few WWII frigates and minesweepers. There was no right mix of ships on each coast; the operational tempo was maintained with difficulty from both fleets and transit times became longer as East Coast ships went to Korea. It was an operational necessity, and it took 8 destroyers to keep 3 in Korean waters. The remaining ships provided NATO with a carrier for part of the time with one destroyer as an escort and occasionally a second - not exactly a very useful contribution to the Alliance. Fortunately, the Korean War was everyone's priority.
Back to tomorrow and the 12 frigate and 2 support ship navy. It would be possible, theoretically anyway, to deploy a 4 ship task group for six months with that size fleet; it will be possible to rotate some ships, but the cost is going to be that only a limited domestic capability will remain. The fleet's priority will go to sustaining the deployed task group. You can juggle the numbers any way you like, the result is that a 14 ship navy doesn't have a great deal of flexibility.
Does it have to be either AOPVs or Tribal-class replacements? One sincerely hopes not; for that would really add up to a huge drop in fleet capability and flexibility. Could one ship do both tasks? Obviously such a ship could be designed, but would that really be a practical solution? I doubt it. It is akin to the old joke about the Army committee formed to design a better horse - their answer was the camel.
Could the situation be improved by building a larger fleet of general-purpose, off-shore patrol vessels with an ice capability? That is also quite possible, but some would argue that the Coast Guard already has vessels that would fulfil that function. This begs the question, "Do we want to have the Coast Guard responsible for all off-shore patrols?" And the answer to that question lies in yet another question, "Could the Coast Guard actually undertake that role?" And that is a lot easier to answer. They could not do it now and it would take several years for them to develop the necessary tactical skills. This would require a complete re-structuring of the Coast Guard into a para-military, and thus non-unionized, force. That could be very difficult. So, really, we are back to Senator Kenny's question, "Who will drive the bus?" And we haven't answered that yet.
To bring this to a close, and to stop asking questions that people seem to have difficulty answering, some points about the Navy's future fleet stand out:
- 12 frigates and a couple of support ships is the bare minimum to maintain a useful international naval presence and commitment to global security
- that force has to be backed-up with a dedicated coastal patrol capability that can function in the Arctic and northern waters
- those frigates will have to be replaced within 20 years and so the planning for the next generation of warship should be going on now.
Under that minimalist fleet structure, one has to ask if it makes sense to base the frigates and support ships on both coasts? Maybe the "blue water" fleet should be based on one coast. The thought of such a fleet re-structuring should give most admirals and politicians palpitations, but it is an option that needs to be considered in the interests of economy.
The grist of my argument comes round to one question, The Navy has presented a comprehensive but politically vulnerable fleet plan, but have we really thought about the alternatives and about the implications of that plan not being approved?
A Reply to Amphion
Brian K. Wentzell
Amphion is not the only naval personage musing about the future of the Canadian Naval Fleet. His comments are serious food for thought as innovative choices and decisions are required to meet the challenges created by the sovereign players and less than sovereign forces in the ever more competitive world. Vice Admiral Drew Robertson has also been speaking publicly, but not in Canada. The March 2008 issue of the US Naval Institute "Proceedings" magazine contains commentaries by several chiefs of naval staff from around the world. They responded to the question, "How do you explain to your government and fellow citizens why your navy is necessary and worth what it costs?" Our Chief of Maritime Staff responded, in part, with the following:
"...the relatively high capital cost of maritime forces can be daunting to those responsible for so many other public priorities. For the latter, I have found it useful to describe the history of our 'Iroquois'-class destroyers. Conceived and approved in the 1960s, these fine ships will enter their fifth decade of service before they are eventually retired. Their designers...built the ships exceptionally well, and the class has provided governments ever since a broad range of options in furthering Canadian policy objectives...".
For the purposes of our generation then the future has been clarified, at least in the mind of our current naval chief, with respect to the matters of air warfare and command at sea capabilities. The 'Iroquois' class will be replaced by the 'Iroquois' class. My question to the readership is thus: What will be required to keep the class running through 2025? How extensive will be their life extension refits be? What will these cost? Will they be equipped with the Cyclone helicopter or will the air force try to keep the Sea King going for another two decades? Will the combat systems be maintainable through the added life of the ships?
In conclusion it is appropriate to inquire whether the naval leadership is sacrificing innovation for more of the same?
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